How it works
How this simulation works
Every number traces to a source, and every assumption is written down.
Data sources
| Category | Used for |
|---|---|
| UN WPP 2024 life tables | yearly death rates and life expectancy |
| World Bank · OWID (population, crude birth rate) | weights for the birth draw |
| OWID / UNESCO (years of schooling) | average schooling trajectory |
| OWID GDP per capita (PPP) | scale of job income |
| OWID total fertility rate | target for the fertility model |
| WHO GHE 2023 | cause structure by age and sex |
| ISO 3166 / UN M49 | matching entities and the map |
How it is computed
Six steps, from birth to death.
- Birth draw: Weighted by annual births, so India is drawn as often as its share of world births.
- Death: Each year draws a death from that country's and sex's life table; the cause comes from WHO GHE by death year, age band and sex.
- Education: A target schooling length is drawn first, then accumulated year by year and cut short by dropout.
- Work: Jobs match by schooling; income = GDP per capita × job multiplier × experience curve.
- Family: Partnership, births and relatives' deaths follow that country's data and life tables.
- Events: Decisions trigger inside age windows, and every stat or money change is recorded.
How close is it
- Life expectancy
- Recomputed e0 versus the source value: mean gap 0.006 years, max 0.018 (645 tables).
- Simulated lifespan
- 20,000 lives per country; every gap versus the source e0 is under 0.5 years.
- Years of schooling
- Five countries (US, DE, JP, BR, IN) stay within 0.48 years.
- Fertility
- Average births in four countries stay within 0.5 of the TFR.
Causes of death are shifting
Causes of death under five: infections falling, perinatal rising (global, weighted by deaths).
| Year | Infections | Perinatal |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 55.1% | 31.0% |
| 2010 | 47.9% | 35.5% |
| 2015 | 45.6% | 36.6% |
| 2019 | 44.8% | 37.2% |
| 2023 | 45.5% | 36.9% |
Source: WHO GHE 2000–2023. Simulations use the 2023 structure because every life starts in 2023.
What is still shaky
- Causes of deathFrom WHO GHE 2023: 185 countries, 7 age bands, by sex. GHE is modelled; countries without registration are filled by the model. It changes the death label, not the survival curve.
- Country scopeAll 215 entities take part in the draw; a 165-country core set (99.9% of births) is used for public statements. The original list is not public.
- Education mechanismSchooling is calibrated to outcomes, not modelled as school quality → learning.
- Content volume60 events (12 causal chains), about 23 per life; the original is larger and this keeps growing.
This is not a prediction about any real person.